The Stapleton Development Plan created a vision for Stapleton to be an integrated community and the affordable housing plan ordinance agreed to by Forest City provides a blueprint for achieving housing diversity consistent with that vision. However, construction to date has been so far off of the goals of the affordable housing plan that it may be time to ask: Is it even possible for Stapleton to fulfill its vision of an integrated community?
As we discussed in our last post, the City of Denver entered into a specific agreement with Stapleton's master developer, Forest City to achieve specific goals for ensuring a diversity of housing options in 80238. The following graph shows the specific targets for housing in Stapleton outlined in that plan:
However, as of the end of 2014 the actual distribution looks like this:
It is pretty clear that Stapleton is well behind its projected goals for rental housing and affordable housing in the affordable housing plan. When you combine the current distribution of housing with the fact that over 60% of new construction of for sale units are for homes over $400,000, it is easy to see why Stapleton is in the top 1% of zipcodes in the nation in terms of education and median income.
The market rate for sale vs. affordable and market rate rental housing distribution is important because it provides middle income and lower income families the opportunity to live in Stapleton.
So why hasn't SDC and Forest City not kept up with the goals? It's not because of a lack of demand for rental housing. The current rental vacancy rate in Denver is at near historic lows. According to the Denver Post, Denver has a rental vacancy rate of only 3.9%. Consequently, rents are shooting up with the average monthly rent at $1145.00. At that rate, a household with an annual income of $50,000 per year will need to dedicate somewhere between 35% and 40% of their take home pay to housing.
These numbers beg a pretty serious question - Can Stapleton even achieve the goals for rental housing and affordable housing? One thing is for sure - if Stapleton is to reach the goals, new construction is going to have to change drastically.
According to The Big Picture document on StapletonDenver.com the overall plan is for a grand total of 12,000 homes - both for sale and rental in Stapleton. With a little over 7,000 homes completed, Stapleton is about 60% of the way to reaching their target.
If Stapleton is to achieve the goals of the Affordable Housing Plan - future construction will need to look something like this:
56% of new construction has to be rental units and 33% market rate for sale if Stapleton is to achieve the housing diversity goals. Given current trends, it is hard to believe that this is going to happen.
There is clearly money to be made building apartments and it goes without saying that there is plenty of demand for affordable for sale and affordable rental. So the question is, why hasn't SDC and Forest City worked to meet this demand? It may be time to ask if SDC and Forest City can achieve the vision for integrated housing in the Stapleton Development Plan or is it time to declare failure and consider a new goal?
As always, 80238 welcomes your thoughts. Also, feel free to follow our facebook page at: https://www.facebook.com/80238blog or on Twitter: @80238blog
You're beating a dead horse. You keep rehashing the same information over and over. The vision of Stapleton has changed. Times have changed and so has the totality of the project. Get over it.
ReplyDeleteI found this post useful, particularly with regard to how dramatically the housing mix would need to change going forward to meet the original targets. Somewhat tangential, but I think you'd find this info useful (though dated) - http://fresc.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/TIF-III.pdf
ReplyDeleteThe big picture document you reference is relatively new so that suggests that Forest City believes and intends to meet those targets. On the south end of Stapleton there is considerable chunks of land set aside for affordable housing and apartment projects and construction on the north end is just beginning. I am not concerned that construction has been asymmetrical to this point; that in and of itself is not a reason to run up a white flag.
ReplyDeleteYour analysis here is at best anecdotal. What is missing here, beside a much more complete analysis of real estate demand and markets, is anything from Forest City about the subject. That is a rather glaring omission in light of their critical role in the development.
Is it time to throw in the towel? Not based on the discussion presented here.
I certainly hope you are right. It appears that more recent estimates put the projected housing units to be over 14,000, which would provide more opportunities for rental and affordable housing. The Citizen Advisory Board is meeting with SDC soon to discuss this issue in more depth.
DeleteI plead guilty to not doing the larger market analyses here - I'm far from an expert on such matters. I welcome comments from anyone who has more experience on tracking the market. The goal of this blog is to ensure that Stapleton residents have insights about the original vision, the plans to achieve that vision and why it is important from a social and economic equity perspective.