One thing is for sure, it didn't just happen. While the Stapleton Development Plan was just a plan, the management of the plan was and still is the responsibility of two primary actors, Stapleton Development Corporation (SDC) and Forest City, Inc. It has been the responsibility of these two organizations, one a public entity created by the City of Denver and the other a private company to serve as master developer. The primary mechanism for creating the diverse community called for in the Stapleton Development Plan is Stapleton Development Corporation's authority to sell land to Forest City, that in turn would be sold to housing developers to build the homes that all Stapleton residents live in today. Consequently, the diversity (or lack thereof) of housing in Stapleton is a direct result of the selling of land by SDC to Forest City and the extent that these exchanges have achieved the goals set forth in the plan.
The first and most obvious way to assess whether these two entities have achieved the goals of the plan is to look at the market rate sales prices for new houses built in Stapleton since 2002. This data is readily available in a report generated by Forest City for the SDC called A Comprehensive Snapshot: Where Housing and Affordable Housing Stands At Stapleton. The latest update of the report came out in October, 2014 (the link is to the July, 2014 report - October is not online).
The following graph points out the obvious - it's expensive to live in Stapleton. However, what the graph also shows is that it wasn't always this way. In the early days there was a very wide price range - with the vast majority of houses being built between $200,000 and $400,000. However, as the housing bubble built, prices rose precipitously to the point that today the vast majority of houses today are priced over $400,000.00.
This rise in prices has essentially priced middle income families out of the market. To illustrate this point, I found a mortgage qualification calculator online and did some basic calculations.
I defined middle-income using Median Family Income as outlined by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), which is used in the Stapleton Affordable Housing Plan. To create a modest range of income levels I looked at what families could afford who had incomes that were between the median family income for Denver and 80% of the median family income. Why these numbers? Because in Denver City Ordinance 20010148, passed in February, 2001, Forest City and the City of Denver agreed that 10% of homes for sale would be made available for families that earn no more than 80% of median family income.
Using these incomes, I entered what a family with good credit could afford with 10% down and an annual percentage interest rate of 4%, property taxes consistent with current rates in Stapleton and modest debt of about $500.00/month. The results are as follows:
Family Income House Price
80% Median Family Income $62,240.00 $234,000.00
100% Median Family Income $77,800.00 $333,000.00
The graph makes clear that the percent of homes put up for sale in this price range is quite small relative to all homes built in 2014. In fact, The Comprehensive Snapshot Report reveals that the Stapleton Development Corporation (SDC) and Forest City are falling well below their agreed upon target of 10% of homes for sale qualifying as affordable with only 4.67% of homes for sale in the 3rd quarter of 2014 meeting this standard. In addition, only 7% of homes built in 2014 were priced between $200,000 and $300,000. Meanwhile the percent of homes for sale that are priced above $400,000 has skyrocketed to 64%.
With these current trends, we are pricing out many people who we all rely on everyday. Among them are people with the following jobs and average incomes according to Indeed.com:
Average Income
Teacher $53,000.00
Fire Fighter $43,000.00
Denver Police $63,000.00
Registered Nurse $63,000.00
Day Care Provider $53,000.00
Computer Programmer $64,000.00
What is most striking is that it is completely within our power and SDC's authority to create more housing diversity in Stapleton. This very topic was discussed at the last Housing Diversity subcommittee to the Citizen Advisory Board to SDC. SDC could decide tomorrow to sell Forest City housing sites with smaller footprints, which would necessitate the construction of homes with lower square footage and consequently lower sale prices.
Nowhere else in Denver does a community have the power to decide who can and can not afford a home in our neighborhood. Market forces rule the day in most of Denver. But because of the SDC, we can choose. Indeed Stapleton is Different.
We always welcome your comments about this blog - the goal is a community conversation. Thanks to everyone who as chimed in so far.
