Thursday, January 29, 2015

Whole Foods and High Fences

So after one week of 80238 and our post on how Stapleton is in the top 1% of zip codes in income and education levels, I am proud to say that we have received close to 1,000 hits, but was disappointed that I only received two comments. However, of the two I did receive one from Christopher Gramkow caught my attention when he asked:


While the comment may have been tongue in cheek, it absolutely is a question that many in Stapleton have asked.  In fact, many in the neighborhood are beside themselves that plans for the new Eastbridge Town Center include a second King Soopers, rather than an upscale grocery like Whole Foods or a specialty grocery like Trader Joe's. 

Conversely, about a year ago if you took a stroll along 26th avenue, east of Westerly Creek and looked south you saw the old fence that divided Aurora and the airport with a sign asking a very different question:



There is actually one very plausible answer for both these questions, Stapleton is not only in the top 1% of zipcodes in the nation, it also borders zipcodes that are well below the national average in income and education. In fact, Stapleton might be one of the most socially and economically isolated zipcodes in the nation.

To help illustrate that point, let's go back to the Washington Post's Super Zip analysis and take a look at the zipcode on the other side of that fence - 80010.


You read it right, 80010 is in the bottom 10% of zipcodes in the nation with regard to education and income level.  Median income in 80010 is over $90K lower than 80238 and only 10% of adults have a college education.   While 80010 is an extreme example, the contrast with the bordering zips is still stark:

                                       Percentile 
Zipcode             Income and Education    Median Income     % Adults w/ College Degrees
80238                                 99%                   $122,817                          78%
80110                                 7%                     $31,248                            10%
80239                                 23%                   $44,597                            12%
80216                                 10%                   $31,073                            12%
80207                                 51%                   $51,347                            39%
80220                                 81%                   $63,207                            58%

The closest in percentile rank, 80220, has almost half the median income and 20% lower college degree rates than 80238, say nothing of the contrast with the other zips.   It is hard to argue with the statement that Stapleton is highly isolated from its neighbors, but as I said, it may be the most isolated zip among the top 1% of zips in the nation. 

For comparison sake, let's look at another super zip in the heart of the south, Birmingham, AL and zipcode 35223 where the income and education level are similar to Stapleton, placing it within the top 1%:


In Birmingham, the income and education levels in adjoining zipcodes to superzip 35223 are nowhere near as different as Stapleton and its neighbors:

                              Percentile
Zipcode         Income and Education       Median Income     % Adults w/College Degrees
35223                           99%                         $133,328                              79%
35213                           96%                         $94,302                                76%
35205                           44%                         $32,881                                41%
35209                           65%                         $47,544                                51%
35216                           70%                         $52,097                                52%
35243                           88%                         $71,779                                66%
35242                           93%                         $93,039                                59%
35210                           56%                         $53,136                                28%

In Alabama, one of the poorest states in our nation, the one and only 1% superzip has bordering zipcodes that are not much different than itself.   There is no question that there is severe poverty in Birmingham, but the people in 35223 don't see the contrast we see in the bordering neighborhoods of 80238.

I looked at other top 1% zipcodes in Minneapolis, St. Louis, New Jersey, Houston, etc. and none had as sharp a drop in incomes and education immediately outside its borders than 80238.

So, when we ask the question why we don't have a Whole Foods? It is probably because no one other than 80238ers can afford to shop there, making a Whole Foods in our neighborhood nonviable. Likewise, when we ask why the fence is still up between 80238 and 80010? Maybe it's because we feel more comfortable with it there. 

If the goal of the Green Book was to tear down fences and build a vibrant economy for Northeast Denver, we have to ask whether we are doing enough to that end.   Is it possible that the increasing economic vitality of our surrounding neighborhoods is in 80238's interest? Or do we believe that we need to build more fences to protect us from our neighbors?

80238 will begin to explore what we have done and are doing to realize the goal in the Green Book of an integrated community and what that might mean for Stapleton and Northeast Denver.

I encourage everyone who reads 80238 to chime in with your thoughts and comments.  I have removed the requirement that people register before commenting on the site in an effort to promote discussion.  So please tell me what you think and what other issues we should examine. You can follow the blog on Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/80238blog or on Twitter @80238blog.

 . . .In case you were wondering, the 35223 zip in Birmingham, technically does not have a Whole Foods- but you can find one just down the road in 35243 in the Cahaba Village Plaza.  

23 comments:

  1. Interesting explanation about the grocery store choice being linked to surrounding neighborhoods.

    I'm curious to hear your thoughts on how 80238 can better integrate with the surrounding communities. I hear home prices brought up a lot, but so far no one seems to be willing to sell their home for half the market value. ;-)

    Looking forward to hearing more from this blog!

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  2. We are integrated with our neighbors east of Beeler and south of 26th... we open streets... and what happens... our crime rate escalates.

    Yeah, let's have more of that.

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    1. From everything that I have read and visiting the District 11 police station, all of these crimes have been crimes of convenience. Meaning, people are just leaving their garage doors open and people just walk in easily. There really hasn't been any B&E. The streets open or not, crime happens. Plus some of the 'hot spots' have been down by the dog park which had nothing to do with opening the streets.

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  3. Development around Fitzsimons will eventually change the demographics of 80010. Gentrification will bring better shopping for 80238, but it won't do much for most of the folks in that part of Aurora.

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  4. Great blog. As someone with experience with demographic and site analysis as it relates to real estate development, the Eastbridge site is a laughably bad retail development opportunity. Traditional national retailer's site selectors draw rings around sites and look at total rooftops and incomes. Eastbridge's inner rings have a huge wedge consisting of an open space nature preserve and a bunch of prisons and warehouses. Even though Stapleton's "1%" helps, those surrounding zip codes offset it.

    Forest City had to kickstart the 29th Ave town center back when there were few new homes yet by giving away the farm in lease provisions to attract lifestyle retail tenants. Big box Quebec Square penciled from day one which is why it was there on day one, due to the tenants' lower HH income requirements in those existing zip codes (and why no Stapleton residents will step foot in that Wal-Mart) and cheap-to-build power center format.

    The fact that there were plans for robust retail development in Eastbridge back in 2006 or whenever it was speaks more to the RE bubble credit market conditions of the time, not the feasibility at that site. Planners probably drew it up well before anyone looked at the market and financial feasibility, then everything crashed. Nowadays a site better be a slam dunk or the developer won't get financing, potential tenants won't touch it, etc.

    Stanley is an equally terrible retail site by traditional standards of site selection criteria, which is why their strategy to attract non-traditional / local tenants to create a destination makes sense (and in reality is by default the only strategy that could possibly work there), and why no conventional developer (Forest City types) or national retail tenant would ever touch it, and why they needed to give ownership to more investors as opposed to from a bank, tax breaks from Aurora, etc.

    Love Stapleton, and not taking sides with anybody, but feel that people who compare FC's inability to develop retail in Eastbridge to the progress at Stanley are making a ridiculous comparison. FC is a huge corporation, has to answer to investment committees, banks, etc. (see slam dunk comment above), which is too bad, but also how we got Stapleton to exist and be what it is in the first place. Stanley is an enormous risk from the perspective of a retail development, which is why some people with zero experience developing retail space are doing it. That's not a knock on them, what they're doing rocks, and I hope it works, and that's the origin story of a lot of awesome disruptive startups.

    Anyway, keep up the interesting blogging! The income disparities between Stapleton and its surrounding neighborhoods is a very interesting subject. I'd be curious to get a land planner's perspective, as it does seem like there are some overt planning attempts to physically isolate Stapleton from the existing adjacent neighborhoods (through parks/open space, commercial space, lack of connectivity, and other buffers), although I wonder if there would ever be a way to make it effectively seamless.

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  5. Thanks for the great analysis of why, when we asked them, Whole Foods, Sprouts, etc, won't come to the area. It's the exact reason why the Northeast Community Co-op Market (www.northeastco-op.org) will succeed. It brings both neighborhoods, providing the natural foods that everyone wants, but doesn't have the business model needs of the Big Box stores. See the the article in today's 5280. http://www.5280.com/eatanddrink/digital/2015/01/works-natural-food-co-op-stapleton-park-hill-and-aurora

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    1. this is very cool - hope it opens soon! www.facebook.com/NortheastCommunityCoOpMarketCafe

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  6. Then why did Whole Foods build in Detroit next to a Medical Campus (about the same size as the one in Aurora) with a population less than that of Stapleton? Run the data on zip code 48202.

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    1. You are right that the 48202 is clearly a low income area. I am no expert on these things - but wonder if density and proximity to downtown might be a factor for that location. I would guess that the Eastbridge location does not make sense given traffic patterns and lots of open space nearby. Your example does beg the question on whether development of 80110 driven by the Medical Campus will lead to something in or around that area eventually.

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    2. Far denser, far more urban, and gentrifying area:

      http://www.salon.com/2012/05/05/whole_foods_is_coming_time_to_buy/

      And $4.2 million in subsidies...

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    3. Thanks for the information about Detroit - very interesting.

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  7. I would throw this out there- My suspicion is that Stapleton's preference of talking down about King Soopers is a subtle form of economic prejudice. By saying how lousy a store it is seems an easy way to judge the customers of the store without saying that we don't want to shop next to other zipcodes.

    How do we start to potentially make some changes? I think it starts with our mindsets and our words.

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    1. IMO, the problem with the existing King Sooper's is not "the other zip codes". The parking lot is reason enough to avoid it altogether, and the store is too small (isles are not wide enough and it's cramped in general). Unfortunately, I don't think Eastbridge is going to be any better in those regards.

      Target doesn't have those problems but it does have its own little annoyances. The deli meat isn't as good, the produce is bad, and they feel a little more expensive all around. My biggest issue is that they don't put price per ounce on their price tags--KS does. It's little, but this is very consumer-unfriendly.

      The solution? We shop in a completely different part of the city (at a KS) once a week when we're there for other reasons.

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    2. @Matt - any extrapolation of linking the lack of desire for a a King Soopers in Eastbridge and prejudice simply has no merit or factual basis. I would assert that consumers (like myself and others) simply would like other options besides a King Sooper store.

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  8. Bruce, thank you for beginning an intelligent, thoughtful discussion about issues of concern for Stapleton residents. Regarding the fence, I have heard neighbors say things like, "can we build a bigger wall" or "I hope those kids don't go to our schools." This is the wrong mindset for our community. Because of proximity, we should be very invested in the prosperity of our neighboring zip codes and be willing to support businesses in that community and engage in community building "across the fence."

    Regarding Whole Foods, you are 100% right! It doesn't matter how wealthy and elite 80238 may be, there will never be enough residents to support a Whole Foods in 80238 alone. A typical urban Whole Foods is looking for a market area of 150,000 residents. At build out, Stapleton is going to have 30,000 residents (I think). The current population of 19,000 residents just doesn't justify the risk of building a new store here.

    If residents want to see a natural grocer in the community, they should look at joining the Northeast Community Co-op Market (www.northeastco-op.org). This project is going to be flexible in design to not only serve Stapleton, but is also engaging members in East Colfax and NW Aurora. A community that is in the top 1% of income and education shouldn't wait for an Austin corporation to save the day---that community should invest their wealth back into the community and build a community-owned grocer that will be the envy of metro Denver.

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  9. Totally agree that the Northeast Community Co-op Market (www.northeastco-op.org) is going to be a fantastic addition to both Stapleton and surrounding areas, and that it will serve as a unifying force to some degree. Personally, I've already joined (largely because of the non-elitist and consciously inclusive attitude of its founders) and can't wait for it to open its doors.

    As for reasons for the comparatively large economic disparity between Stapleton and surrounding areas, although I hope we can eventually eliminate these, I have a few thoughts about the issue. First, it seems unfair to compare Stapleton's disparity (with its neighboring zip codes) with that of other neighborhoods which grew organically rather than as a result of a major urban redevelopment project. If you look at the area when it was still Stapleton airport, I'd bet there was very little disparity among the zip codes around the airport. Like most neighborhoods in the US around major airports, ALL of them were pretty uniformly low-income and poorly educated. So it shouldn't come as any surprise that without real "teeth" in the artificial (and entirely appropriate) constraints on the development of an essentially non-organic neighborhood, the demographics of 80238 are drastically different than it's neighbors. The question is why the City of Denver has allowed SDC and Forest City to stray so far from the original plans. Were there contractual obligations involved? If so, were there legal/financial consequences for violating them? I'd be very curious to know if anyone has answers to these questions.

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  10. Y'know, the entire tone of this post is kind of judgmental and sanctimonious and makes me think there is some sort of underlying contempt for folks in Stapleton, who I find are extremely generous and compassionate, not hard-hearted "1 percenters." Usually, when I hear those kinds of comments, it's from someone who lives in another white, liberal, affluent neighborhood like South Park Hill with NO affordable housing at all and who lays into Stapleton for not being perfect.

    I would love it if there were more affordable housing in Stapleton or if it were more diverse. But to suggest that it's because folks in Stapleton don't want minority kids to go to their schools or to live amongst them is outrageous and unfounded. No one ever says anything about the fact that kids from outside neighborhoods choice in to Stapleton schools. No one complains about the fact that DSST is two-thirds minority. What I see in Stapleton is an overflowing river of white liberal guilt most of the time, sometimes to an annoying degree. There may still be a fence along part of 26th, but for several miles it's been removed and the streets have been connected to surrounding neighborhoods. There is also at least one park that has been developed along the southern part of the land on 26th, meaning that it was really developed for kids from the adjacent neighborhood.

    As for the grocery store, I really don't care that much about a Whole Foods, though I suppose more choice would be nice. I would just like an ADDITIONAL grocery store because the KS on Quebec serves far, far too many people. (It is officially designated as "oversubscribed" by KS.) The parking lot is always a crowded mess. The gas station looks like the Arab Oil Embargo every day. And every register always has a long line every day.

    It is very tedious to see people outside Stapleton hammer residents in the neighborhood for policies they have absolutely no say over - the building of affordable housing. It's especially tedious when you consider how poorly the rest of the city has done on building affordable housing in comparison to Stapleton.

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  12. I think we lose sight of the fact that these neighbors use to live across the street from a major airport. Ultimately i think that has set their course as the bottom 10%. I know the area has had time to recover from the move of the airport, but it clearly will take many years to rebound.

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  13. The whole point of the Green Book and the Stapleton development was to create an engine for economic development to bolster the surrounding neighborhoods. The vision included economic development to provide livable wage jobs and housing opportunities within Stapleton that would accommodate all income levels. The fact that SDC has not held Forest City accountable to either plank of the plan is troubling and is contributing to the severe economic segregation.

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