No Vacancy: Is it too Late for Stapleton to be Integrated?

The Stapleton Development Plan created a vision for Stapleton to be an integrated community and the affordable housing plan ordinance agreed to by Forest City provides a blueprint for achieving housing diversity consistent with that vision.  However, construction to date has been so far off of the goals of the affordable housing plan that it may be time to ask:  Is it even possible for Stapleton to fulfill its vision of an integrated community?

As we discussed in our last post, the City of Denver entered into a specific agreement with Stapleton's master developer, Forest City to achieve specific goals for ensuring a diversity of housing options in 80238.  The following graph shows the specific targets for housing in Stapleton outlined in that plan:

However, as of the end of 2014 the actual distribution looks like this:

It is pretty clear that Stapleton is well behind its projected goals for rental housing and affordable housing in the affordable housing plan. When you combine the current distribution of housing with the fact that over 60% of new construction of for sale units are for homes over $400,000, it is easy to see why Stapleton is in the top 1% of zipcodes in the nation in terms of education and median income. 

The market rate for sale vs. affordable and market rate rental housing distribution is important because it provides middle income and lower income families the opportunity to live in Stapleton.  

So why hasn't SDC and Forest City not kept up with the goals?  It's not because of a lack of demand for rental housing. The current rental vacancy rate in Denver is at near historic lows.  According to the Denver Post, Denver has a rental vacancy rate of only 3.9%.  Consequently, rents are shooting up with the average monthly rent at $1145.00.  At that rate, a household with an annual income of $50,000 per year will need to dedicate somewhere between 35% and 40% of their take home pay to housing.  

These numbers beg a pretty serious question - Can Stapleton even achieve the goals for rental housing and affordable housing?  One thing is for sure - if Stapleton is to reach the goals, new construction is going to have to change drastically. 

According to The Big Picture document on StapletonDenver.com the overall plan is for a grand total of 12,000 homes - both for sale and rental in Stapleton.  With a little over 7,000 homes completed, Stapleton is about 60% of the way to reaching their target. 

If Stapleton is to achieve the goals of the Affordable Housing Plan - future construction will need to look something like this:

56% of new construction has to be rental units and 33% market rate for sale if Stapleton is to achieve the housing diversity goals.  Given current trends, it is hard to believe that this is going to happen. 

There is clearly money to be made building apartments and it goes without saying that there is plenty of demand for affordable for sale and affordable rental.  So the question is, why hasn't SDC and Forest City worked to meet this demand? It may be time to ask if SDC and Forest City can achieve the vision for integrated housing in the Stapleton Development Plan or is it time to declare failure and consider a new goal? 

As always, 80238 welcomes your thoughts.  Also, feel free to follow our facebook page at: https://www.facebook.com/80238blog or on Twitter: @80238blog

Whole Foods and High Fences

So after one week of 80238 and our post on how Stapleton is in the top 1% of zip codes in income and education levels, I am proud to say that we have received close to 1,000 hits, but was disappointed that I only received two comments. However, of the two I did receive one from Christopher Gramkow caught my attention when he asked:

While the comment may have been tongue in cheek, it absolutely is a question that many in Stapleton have asked.  In fact, many in the neighborhood are beside themselves that plans for the new Eastbridge Town Center include a second King Soopers, rather than an upscale grocery like Whole Foods or a specialty grocery like Trader Joe's. 

Conversely, about a year ago if you took a stroll along 26th avenue, east of Westerly Creek and looked south you saw the old fence that divided Aurora and the airport with a sign asking a very different question:

There is actually one very plausible answer for both these questions, Stapleton is not only in the top 1% of zipcodes in the nation, it also borders zipcodes that are well below the national average in income and education. In fact, Stapleton might be one of the most socially and economically isolated zipcodes in the nation.

To help illustrate that point, let's go back to the Washington Post's Super Zip analysis and take a look at the zipcode on the other side of that fence - 80010.

You read it right, 80010 is in the bottom 10% of zipcodes in the nation with regard to education and income level.  Median income in 80010 is over $90K lower than 80238 and only 10% of adults have a college education.   While 80010 is an extreme example, the contrast with the bordering zips is still stark:

                                       Percentile 

Zipcode             Income and Education    Median Income     % Adults w/ College Degrees

80238                                 99%                   $122,817                          78%
80110                                 7%                     $31,248                            10%

80239                                 23%                   $44,597                            12%

80216                                 10%                   $31,073                            12%

80207                                 51%                   $51,347                            39%

80220                                 81%                   $63,207                            58%

The closest in percentile rank, 80220, has almost half the median income and 20% lower college degree rates than 80238, say nothing of the contrast with the other zips.   It is hard to argue with the statement that Stapleton is highly isolated from its neighbors, but as I said, it may be the most isolated zip among the top 1% of zips in the nation. 

For comparison sake, let's look at another super zip in the heart of the south, Birmingham, AL and zipcode 35223 where the income and education level are similar to Stapleton, placing it within the top 1%:

In Birmingham, the income and education levels in adjoining zipcodes to superzip 35223 are nowhere near as different as Stapleton and its neighbors:

                              Percentile

Zipcode         Income and Education       Median Income     % Adults w/College Degrees

35223                           99%                         $133,328                              79%
35213                           96%                         $94,302                                76%

35205                           44%                         $32,881                                41%

35209                           65%                         $47,544                                51%

35216                           70%                         $52,097                                52%

35243                           88%                         $71,779                                66%

35242                           93%                         $93,039                                59%

35210                           56%                         $53,136                                28%

In Alabama, one of the poorest states in our nation, the one and only 1% superzip has bordering zipcodes that are not much different than itself.   There is no question that there is severe poverty in Birmingham, but the people in 35223 don't see the contrast we see in the bordering neighborhoods of 80238.

I looked at other top 1% zipcodes in Minneapolis, St. Louis, New Jersey, Houston, etc. and none had as sharp a drop in incomes and education immediately outside its borders than 80238.

So, when we ask the question why we don't have a Whole Foods? It is probably because no one other than 80238ers can afford to shop there, making a Whole Foods in our neighborhood nonviable. Likewise, when we ask why the fence is still up between 80238 and 80010? Maybe it's because we feel more comfortable with it there. 

If the goal of the Green Book was to tear down fences and build a vibrant economy for Northeast Denver, we have to ask whether we are doing enough to that end.   Is it possible that the increasing economic vitality of our surrounding neighborhoods is in 80238's interest? Or do we believe that we need to build more fences to protect us from our neighbors?

80238 will begin to explore what we have done and are doing to realize the goal in the Green Book of an integrated community and what that might mean for Stapleton and Northeast Denver.

I encourage everyone who reads 80238 to chime in with your thoughts and comments.  I have removed the requirement that people register before commenting on the site in an effort to promote discussion.  So please tell me what you think and what other issues we should examine. You can follow the blog on Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/80238blog or on Twitter @80238blog.

 . . .In case you were wondering, the 35223 zip in Birmingham, technically does not have a Whole Foods- but you can find one just down the road in 35243 in the Cahaba Village Plaza.  

Stapleton - We are the 1%

I will cut right to the chase. If the goal for Stapleton was to retain middle income families in Denver and have them contribute to the social fabric of Northeast Denver, an analysis conducted by the Washington Post examining education and income levels of the nation's zipcodes suggests that Stapleton may not have achieved that goal. In fact, Stapleton may be one of the most exclusive communities in the nation.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/local/2013/11/09/washington-a-world-apart/

When first considering these issues and this blog - this visual from the Washington Post's web page on "Super Zip Codes" definitely caught my eye. Super zip codes are the 650 zipcodes in the country that rank between the 95th and 99th percentile in median income and percent of adults with college degrees. The data are collected from the American Community Survey of the US Census. 

Stapleton, in fact, is one of approximately 130 zip codes that are in the 99th percentile or the top 1% of zip codes in the nation in terms of median income and education level. With a median household income of almost $123,000.00 per year and 78% of adults with a college degree, Stapleton is among some pretty elite company to include the likes of:

Zip___ City            _________                        Median Income____% College Grads 
94707   Berkeley, CA                                     $130,000                             83%
94129   San Francisco (near the Presidio)        $118,000                             82%
02110   Downtown Boston, MA                       $123,000                              78%
10069   Upper West Side of Manhattan            $165,000                              92%

By this measure (and indeed it is just one measure), Stapleton has become one of the most elite zip codes in the nation. A far cry from the original vision in the Green Book of creating a neighborhood that would retain middle income families in Denver.

Despite the best laid plans of the Green Book, we should ask whether having 80238 be one of the most economically and educationally advantaged zipcodes in the nation is necessarily a bad thing for Northeast Denver? Is it possible that the surrounding neighborhoods are benefiting from 80238 or does the contrast in education and income levels exacerbate the very problems Stapleton was designed to remedy?  These are the questions we will explore in this blog.

Next time, we will look beyond the boundaries of Stapleton to the zip codes that border 80238. We will consider how those neighborhoods compare with Stapleton and other similar communities throughout the nation. We will also examine whether the contrast in income and education levels between Stapleton and the surrounding community is common place around the country or an anomaly.